Global Plastic Policy Calculator
Evaluate how national or regional plastic regulations influence production, recycling, landfill diversion, and greenhouse gas emissions. Combine bans, recycling targets, and export limits for scenario planning.
Global production exceeded 400 Mt in 2023.
Estimate total plastic production avoided through banned items.
Global average is ~16%; EU is ~32%.
Set ambitious targets for mechanical or chemical recycling.
Limiting waste exports can lower transport emissions and improve domestic accountability.
Baseline emissions
1,000 Mt CO₂e
Post-policy emissions
790 Mt CO₂e
Plastic avoided
60 Mt
Recycling increase
80 Mt
Landfill diversion
140 Mt
CO₂ savings
210 Mt CO₂e
How to Use This Calculator
Set baseline production
Enter national or regional plastic production to anchor emissions and waste volumes.
Adjust policy levers
Model single-use bans, improved recycling rates, and export limits to reflect policy packages.
Interpret environmental outcomes
Review emissions, landfill diversion, and recycling gains to inform negotiations and action plans.
Formula
Baseline CO₂ = Production × 2.5
Plastic Avoided = Production × Ban %
Recycling Lift = Production × (Δ Recycling Rate)
CO₂ Savings = Baseline CO₂ − Reduced CO₂
Example: A 400 Mt baseline with a 15% ban and +20 point recycling increase avoids 60 Mt of production, adds 80 Mt to recycling, and cuts ~175 Mt CO₂e annually.
Modify emission factors if you have region-specific lifecycle data.
About the Global Plastic Policy Calculator
Negotiations for a global plastics treaty rely on clear quantification of proposed interventions. This calculator translates policy levers into mass and emissions outcomes to support evidence-based decision-making.
When to Use This Calculator
- Policy analysis: Compare different national commitments and treaty scenarios.
- Corporate strategy: Align packaging reductions with government targets.
- NGO campaigns: Illustrate the impact of proposed bans and recycling investments.
- Academic research: Model future waste flows under alternative policy pathways.
Why Use Our Calculator?
- ✅ Scenario-based: Combine multiple interventions in one calculation.
- ✅ Transparent math: Uses clearly documented assumptions for adaptation.
- ✅ Impact-focused: Highlights emissions, landfill diversion, and recycling outcomes.
- ✅ Stakeholder friendly: Easy to share with policymakers and partners.
Common Applications
Government agencies: Evaluate nationally determined contributions for plastic treaties.
Consultancies: Advise clients on compliance or voluntary reduction targets.
Civic organizations: Advocate for ambitious plastic reduction policies with quantitative backing.
Tips for Best Results
- Break down production by resin type to refine emission factors.
- Include downstream impacts like incineration and chemical recycling in advanced models.
- Combine with economic data to estimate job creation or cost savings.
- Communicate results visually to engage broader audiences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the emission factor include?
It covers cradle-to-grave plastics emissions (production, processing, and end-of-life). Adjust if using cradle-to-gate values.
How do I model chemical recycling?
Increase recycling rate and decrease emission factor if chemical recycling has lower lifecycle emissions in your scenario.
Can the calculator handle specific product bans?
Yes. Estimate the portion of national production represented by the banned items and input that as the ban percentage.
What about plastic demand growth?
Adjust the baseline production upward to simulate future demand before applying policy levers.