Vaccination strategy
Biden’s National Vaccine Goal Estimator
Adjust population, coverage, and capacity ramp-up to estimate how quickly a large-scale vaccination plan could achieve target coverage. Defaults reflect United States population assumptions and the early 2021 White House goal of 100 million shots in 100 days.
Example: 0.68 = 68% already fully vaccinated.
Doses administered per day at the start of the plan.
Example: 0.85 = 85% of population fully vaccinated.
E.g., 0.12 = 12% capacity increase every four weeks.
100 days is the original Biden milestone.
People remaining
56,270,000
Need full vaccination to reach target.
Projected completion
February 3rd, 2026
10 weeks from start (~70 days).
Daily doses needed for goal
1,125,400
To finish within 100 days.
Coverage after 100 days
85.0%
Assumes no change in demand or eligibility constraints.
Shots delivered in first 100 days
112,540,000
Compare with the 100 million shots goal from early 2021.
How to Use This Calculator
Set baseline assumptions
Provide population, existing coverage, and the starting daily capacity for dose administration.
Model monthly ramp-up
Estimate capacity growth from new federal contracts, distribution partnerships, or expanded eligibility.
Compare with policy goals
Review projected completion dates, shots required per day, and 100-day progress relative to the Biden administration targets.
Formula
Doses remaining = (Population × Target coverage − Population × Current coverage) × Doses per person
Weekly doses = Daily capacity × 7 (capacity increases by monthly gain every 4 weeks)
Completion weeks = smallest n where cumulative weekly doses ≥ doses remaining
Daily doses needed = Doses remaining ÷ Goal days
Coverage after goal window = (Current coverage × Population + Cumulative doses ÷ Doses per person) ÷ Population
Full Description
In January 2021, President Biden set a goal of administering 100 million vaccine doses within the first 100 days of his administration, followed by expanded targets as supply increased. This calculator adapts those concepts for strategic planning—estimating how changes in capacity and coverage targets affect timeline projections. Use it to explore how federal partnerships, manufacturing ramp-ups, or community clinics alter progress toward herd immunity thresholds.
The estimates assume consistent demand, equitable distribution, and no major supply disruptions. Always cross-check with CDC, HHS, and local health department updates for the latest operational data.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does this account for booster doses?
No. The model focuses on initial full vaccination. Add booster-specific capacity separately or adjust doses per person accordingly.
What if vaccine supply exceeds projections?
Increase the daily capacity and monthly growth parameters. Higher throughput shortens completion time and raises 100-day coverage.
Are partially vaccinated individuals included?
The tool assumes full vaccination. If many people have received one dose, adjust the current coverage or doses per person to reflect real-world progress.
Can states or territories use different inputs?
Yes. Replace population and capacity numbers with any jurisdiction’s figures to create localized projections.