Infectious disease
COVID-19 Mortality Risk (Simplified)
This educational model highlights relative mortality risk using widely reported risk factors. It is not a substitute for clinical judgement, laboratory testing, or shared decision-making with a qualified healthcare professional.
Resting SpO₂ on room air. Seek emergency care for SpO₂ ≤ 90%.
Comorbidities
Score summary
- Risk points: 10
- Comorbidities: 1
- Vaccination: boosted
Estimated mortality risk
0.5%
Probabilities are illustrative; real-world risk depends on many factors.
Maintain isolation guidelines, hydration, and supportive care. Continue monitoring because risk can change with new symptoms.
Always consult local guidelines and a healthcare professional for personalized care.
How to Use This Calculator
Gather key risk factors
Review patient age, vaccination history, resting oxygen saturation, and major comorbidities prior to calculation.
Enter the data carefully
Use the latest clinical measurements. For oxygen saturation, measure on room air when feasible.
Discuss results responsibly
Use the estimate to frame conversations about monitoring, therapeutic eligibility, and care escalation – never as a sole decision tool.
Formula
Logit(p) = -8.5 + 0.32 × (Risk points)
Risk points = Age tier score + Sex score + SpO₂ score + Comorbidity weights − Vaccination protection
- Age tiers: 30s (+2), 40s (+4), 50s (+7), 60s (+10), 70s (+13), ≥80 (+16).
- Male sex: +2 points.
- SpO₂ 92–95%: +4; <92%: +8.
- Comorbidities: most add +4; obesity +3; immunocompromised +5.
- Vaccination: primary series (−4), boosted (−7).
- Mortality probability p = 1 ÷ (1 + e−Logit(p)).
Values are illustrative and derived from public risk trends rather than a single validated dataset.
Full Description
Severe COVID-19 outcomes are influenced by age, chronic conditions, immune status, and access to vaccination. This simplified model combines those elements into an easy-to-interpret percentage that can frame discussions about outpatient therapeutics, hospital triage, or at-home monitoring. It is not a replacement for sophisticated models such as QCOVID or clinical judgement.
As variants, therapies, and population immunity evolve, so does absolute risk. Maintain awareness of current public health guidance, antiviral eligibility criteria, and early warning signs requiring emergency care (e.g., chest pain, sudden confusion, sustained SpO₂ < 90%).
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is this calculator?
It provides an educational approximation based on widely reported risk gradients. Clinicians should rely on validated models and patient-specific data.
Should I change treatment solely based on this score?
No. Use it to start conversations about therapeutics, monitoring, and thresholds for in-person care – never as a stand-alone decision tool.
Does vaccination always lower risk?
Vaccination generally reduces severe outcomes, but effectiveness depends on timing, variant, and immune response. Encourage up-to-date boosters.
What if symptoms worsen?
Seek immediate medical attention for emergency warning signs regardless of calculated risk. Continuous symptom tracking is essential.