Manufacturing planning
Vaccine Production Ramp-Up Model
Forecast cumulative vaccine doses produced, available after wastage, and successfully delivered. Adjust capacity ramp-up, supply chain losses, and distribution efficiency to estimate population coverage.
Example: 0.18 = 18% capacity increase per month.
Accounts for vial wastage, cold-chain losses, expirations.
Share of usable doses that reach arms each month.
Includes doses already produced and in storage.
Total produced
1746.6M
Delivered doses
1410.3M
People fully vaccinated
705.2M
Assuming 2 doses per person.
| Month | Produced | After wastage | Delivered | Cumulative delivered |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month 1 | 50.0M | 47.5M | 40.4M | 40.4M |
| Month 2 | 59.0M | 56.0M | 47.6M | 88.0M |
| Month 3 | 69.6M | 66.1M | 56.2M | 144.2M |
| Month 4 | 82.2M | 78.0M | 66.3M | 210.6M |
| Month 5 | 96.9M | 92.1M | 78.3M | 288.9M |
| Month 6 | 114.4M | 108.7M | 92.4M | 381.2M |
| Month 7 | 135.0M | 128.2M | 109.0M | 490.2M |
| Month 8 | 159.3M | 151.3M | 128.6M | 618.8M |
| Month 9 | 187.9M | 178.5M | 151.8M | 770.6M |
| Month 10 | 221.8M | 210.7M | 179.1M | 949.7M |
| Month 11 | 261.7M | 248.6M | 211.3M | 1161.0M |
| Month 12 | 308.8M | 293.4M | 249.4M | 1410.3M |
How to Use This Calculator
Define manufacturing capacity
Enter the current monthly output and expected percentage growth as new production lines come online.
Account for wastage and distribution
Include cold-chain losses, vial wastage, and the share of doses actually delivered to clinics and vaccination sites.
Translate doses into population coverage
The model estimates how many people can be fully vaccinated (given doses per person) and provides a month-by-month projection.
Formula
Monthly productionn = Initial capacity × (1 + growth)n−1
Usable dosesn = Productionn × (1 − wastage)
Delivered dosesn = Usablen × Distribution efficiency
Cumulative delivered = Σ Deliveredn + Starting inventory × Distribution efficiency
People fully vaccinated = Cumulative delivered ÷ Doses per person
Full Description
Vaccine manufacturing programmes must balance raw output, quality control, cold-chain integrity, and last-mile delivery. This calculator helps planning teams test scenarios—for example, how expanding contract manufacturing or improving distribution efficiency accelerates coverage. Adjust parameters to reflect real-world contracts, regulatory approvals, or dose-sharing initiatives.
Use the month-by-month projection to coordinate procurement, staffing, and community vaccination drives. The tool assumes demand is sufficient to absorb delivered doses; incorporate uptake modelling separately for comprehensive planning.
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as wastage?
Include doses lost to cold-chain failures, vial overfill, breakage, and discarded open vials at the end of sessions.
How should I choose distribution efficiency?
Estimate the proportion of available doses that are actually administered each month after logistics bottlenecks and scheduling constraints.
Can this model booster campaigns?
Yes. Adjust doses per person to include boosters or rerun the model with booster-specific demand and timelines.
How do I incorporate multiple manufacturers?
Sum capacities across manufacturers or run separate scenarios per manufacturer and combine the cumulative outputs.