Poker EV Calculator
Calculate expected value (EV) for poker decisions. Determine if a call, bet, or raise is profitable based on pot size, bet size, and win probability.
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter pot size (total money in the pot).
- Enter bet size (amount to call, bet, or raise).
- Enter win probability as a percentage.
- The calculator displays expected value and break-even probability.
- Use this to make profitable poker decisions.
Expected Value Formula
EV is calculated from pot, bet, and win probability:
EV = (Win Prob × Pot) - ((1 - Win Prob) × Bet)
Break-even Probability = Bet / (Pot + Bet)
Example: 25% win, $100 pot, $20 bet: EV = (0.25 × $100) - (0.75 × $20) = $25 - $15 = +$10 (profitable). Break-even = $20 / ($100 + $20) = 16.7%. If win probability > 16.7%, call is profitable. Positive EV = profitable decision, negative EV = unprofitable decision.
Full Description
Expected value (EV) is a fundamental concept in poker that measures the average profit or loss from a decision over the long run. Positive EV means a decision is profitable on average, while negative EV means it\'s unprofitable. The Poker EV Calculator helps you determine if a call, bet, or raise is profitable based on pot size, bet size, and win probability.
EV is calculated as (Win Probability × Pot) - (Lose Probability × Bet). Break-even probability is the win probability needed for EV = 0, calculated as Bet / (Pot + Bet). If your win probability is above break-even, the decision is profitable. If below, it\'s unprofitable. In the long run, making +EV decisions makes money, while -EV decisions lose money. However, short-term variance means you can lose on +EV plays and win on -EV plays—focus on making correct decisions, not short-term results.
This calculator helps you make profitable poker decisions. Enter pot size, bet size, and win probability, and it calculates EV and break-even probability. Use it to analyze calls, bets, raises, understand poker math, or improve decision-making. Remember, poker is about making correct decisions over the long run—focus on EV, not short-term results!
Frequently Asked Questions
What is expected value (EV) in poker?
Expected value is the average profit or loss from a decision over the long run. Positive EV = profitable decision, negative EV = unprofitable. EV = (Win Probability × Pot) - (Lose Probability × Bet). Example: 25% win, $100 pot, $20 bet: EV = (0.25 × $100) - (0.75 × $20) = $25 - $15 = +$10 (profitable).
How is EV calculated?
EV = (Win Probability × Pot) - (Lose Probability × Bet). Or: EV = (Win Prob × Pot) - ((1 - Win Prob) × Bet). Example: 30% win, $150 pot, $30 bet: EV = (0.30 × $150) - (0.70 × $30) = $45 - $21 = +$24. Positive EV = call/bet, negative EV = fold.
What is break-even probability?
Break-even probability is the win probability needed for EV = 0. Break-even = Bet / (Pot + Bet). Example: $20 bet, $100 pot: Break-even = 20 / (100 + 20) = 16.7%. If win probability > 16.7%, call is profitable. If < 16.7%, fold.
Should I always make +EV decisions?
Yes, in the long run! +EV decisions make money over time, -EV decisions lose money. However, short-term variance means you can lose on +EV plays and win on -EV plays. Focus on making correct decisions based on EV, not short-term results. Bankroll management is also important.