Poker EV Calculator

Calculate expected value (EV) for poker decisions. Determine if a call, bet, or raise is profitable based on pot size, bet size, and win probability.

How to Use This Calculator

  1. Enter pot size (total money in the pot).
  2. Enter bet size (amount to call, bet, or raise).
  3. Enter win probability as a percentage.
  4. The calculator displays expected value and break-even probability.
  5. Use this to make profitable poker decisions.

Expected Value Formula

EV is calculated from pot, bet, and win probability:

EV = (Win Probability × Pot) - (Lose Probability × Bet)
EV = (Win Prob × Pot) - ((1 - Win Prob) × Bet)

Break-even Probability = Bet / (Pot + Bet)

Example: 25% win, $100 pot, $20 bet: EV = (0.25 × $100) - (0.75 × $20) = $25 - $15 = +$10 (profitable). Break-even = $20 / ($100 + $20) = 16.7%. If win probability > 16.7%, call is profitable. Positive EV = profitable decision, negative EV = unprofitable decision.

Full Description

Expected value (EV) is a fundamental concept in poker that measures the average profit or loss from a decision over the long run. Positive EV means a decision is profitable on average, while negative EV means it\'s unprofitable. The Poker EV Calculator helps you determine if a call, bet, or raise is profitable based on pot size, bet size, and win probability.

EV is calculated as (Win Probability × Pot) - (Lose Probability × Bet). Break-even probability is the win probability needed for EV = 0, calculated as Bet / (Pot + Bet). If your win probability is above break-even, the decision is profitable. If below, it\'s unprofitable. In the long run, making +EV decisions makes money, while -EV decisions lose money. However, short-term variance means you can lose on +EV plays and win on -EV plays—focus on making correct decisions, not short-term results.

This calculator helps you make profitable poker decisions. Enter pot size, bet size, and win probability, and it calculates EV and break-even probability. Use it to analyze calls, bets, raises, understand poker math, or improve decision-making. Remember, poker is about making correct decisions over the long run—focus on EV, not short-term results!

Frequently Asked Questions

What is expected value (EV) in poker?

Expected value is the average profit or loss from a decision over the long run. Positive EV = profitable decision, negative EV = unprofitable. EV = (Win Probability × Pot) - (Lose Probability × Bet). Example: 25% win, $100 pot, $20 bet: EV = (0.25 × $100) - (0.75 × $20) = $25 - $15 = +$10 (profitable).

How is EV calculated?

EV = (Win Probability × Pot) - (Lose Probability × Bet). Or: EV = (Win Prob × Pot) - ((1 - Win Prob) × Bet). Example: 30% win, $150 pot, $30 bet: EV = (0.30 × $150) - (0.70 × $30) = $45 - $21 = +$24. Positive EV = call/bet, negative EV = fold.

What is break-even probability?

Break-even probability is the win probability needed for EV = 0. Break-even = Bet / (Pot + Bet). Example: $20 bet, $100 pot: Break-even = 20 / (100 + 20) = 16.7%. If win probability > 16.7%, call is profitable. If < 16.7%, fold.

Should I always make +EV decisions?

Yes, in the long run! +EV decisions make money over time, -EV decisions lose money. However, short-term variance means you can lose on +EV plays and win on -EV plays. Focus on making correct decisions based on EV, not short-term results. Bankroll management is also important.