Cubic Regression Calculator

Enter x-y pairs to fit a third-degree polynomial model and evaluate predictions and R² goodness of fit.

Predicted y ≈ 30.6000

Cubic model

y = 1.6000 + (0.5476)x + (-0.2857)x² + (0.1667)x³

R² = 0.9997

Fitted values
xActual yPredicted yResidual
12.00002.0286-0.0286
23.00002.88570.1143
35.00005.1714-0.1714
410.00009.88570.1143
518.000018.0286-0.0286

How to Use This Calculator

  1. Enter at least four data pairs (x, y) representing observed values.
  2. Review the fitted cubic equation and R² goodness-of-fit metric.
  3. Use the optional input to predict y for a new x value.
  4. Inspect the residuals table to assess model performance.

Formula

Model: y = a₀ + a₁x + a₂x² + a₃x³

Coefficients solve (XᵀX)a = Xᵀy where rows of X are [1, x, x², x³]

R² = 1 − (SSres / SStot)

Full Description

Cubic regression fits a third-degree polynomial to capture nonlinear trends with up to two inflection points. Least squares minimizes residual sum of squares, yielding coefficients that best approximate observed data in a linear algebraic framework.

Compare R² and residual patterns to judge fit quality. Consider simpler or more complex models depending on bias-variance trade-offs.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why do I need at least four points?

A cubic has four coefficients; fewer points lead to an underdetermined system. More points improve stability.

Can coefficients be unstable?

Yes. Large x magnitudes or collinearity can cause numerical issues. Standardizing x values can help.

Is R² sufficient to judge fit?

Use R² alongside residual analysis and domain knowledge to avoid overfitting or misinterpretation.

Does the model extrapolate reliably?

Polynomial extrapolation can diverge rapidly. Interpret predictions outside the data range cautiously.